Years ago, when I was a younger lad, I'd read Eric Cressey's random thoughts posts. They were brilliant, he was brilliant. The posts were quick tidbits on what he was thinking about. They might not have been complete thoughts but they were helpful in knowing how he was approaching training and business. Below are my random thoughts, on a random Tuesday in August.

"NYC is Dead" -Quote by literally Everyone

  • Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The flight out of New York, which has been a narrative since April has continued to gain attention. It's catchy, I get it! But it's a bit early to make that distinction. James Altucher, whom I listen to religiously, proclaimed that NYC is Dead Forever. He laid out a ton of anecdotal reasons for New York's decline. Broadway is closed, restaurants are closed, the homeless are living in the middle wealthy New Yorkers. Due to overcrowding, Prisoners are being released early because of overcrowding in New York prisons. It's chaotic.

  • August is typically the slowest month for Manhattan annually. To make this proclamation in August is a bit short-sighted. Manhattan is always asleep. Whether citizens are out East, or on family vacations for the last time this summer, August hasn't changed. New Yorkers are tied to a K-12 schedule. Parents, teachers, and administrators will come back. At this point, they have to. I'll drop my own anecdote since this is my post. The people with an extra home, or the means to leave town, have done so. They've been gone since March. That's a lot of New York. What they haven't done, sell their homes. They're staying because they're waiting to see what's next too.

  • Let's not pull the plug. Museums, gyms and art galleries will be open by September. All that rambling is to say, NYC isn't dead yet. Broadway, while not open, will have to make adjustments. Hamilton was released on Disney Plus in early July. Hamilton was the most-watched show in July. The second place wasn't even close. While Hamilton is one of the hottest tickets on Broadway, I would expect other performances to be released before reopening in 2021. The restaurant industry has made adjustments. I can't even guess the economics of an NYC restaurant, but they will need to hold on until Labor Day to have a chance at staying open. Outdoor dining has helped some restaurants hold it together while more guidelines are released in the Fall. Read more.

  • 600,000 students may, or may not be in school by Christmas. College students not coming back is something I've been thinking about deeply. Where will the rental market go if there's a second wave? There are ~600,000 students in NYC. Many utilize rentals in and around the neighborhoods they go to school. Rentals are sitting on the market that would normally rent in a matter of days. We saw one of the largest declines in median rents in July 2020, there are over 13,000 rentals available in Manhattan, that's a 131% increase over July '19. We will have to give the market some time to absorb this inventory. August should see some absorption and it's something to keep an eye on.

Thanks for reading! More to come.

Work With Michael

Michael has a deep understanding of real estate; but more than that, a genuine desire to help his client's reach their goals. He is passionate about gaining a deep understanding of the market and believes utilizing data to make better purchase and sales decision allows him to better serve his clients needs.
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